Alright folks. After the beating I took last week on UFC 89, I am looking to get back on the horse. Thankfully, I don't have to wait long (and thankfully, the New England Patriots showed up on Monday night, taking some of the sting out of the week) as this weekend's UFC 90 presents me with the opportunity to get back in the black. This week I will not be playing around with any silly theories or equations. I will just bet on the fighter that I think will win, regardless of line (except in one notable case...more on that later...). There is significantly more risk in this, as it costs much more money to bet favorites, but I'm rolling the dice. Here we go.

Lines

Thales Leites (-550)
Drew McFedries (+350)

Dan Miller (-325)
Matt Horwich (+250)

Josh Koscheck (-165)
Thiago Alves (+135)

Fabricio Werdum (-1100)
Junior Dos Santos (+600)

Spencer Fisher (-350)
Shannon Gugerty (+275)

Hermes Franca (-200)
Marcus Aurelio (+160)

Gray Maynard (-260)
Rich Clementi (+200)

Josh Burkman (-220)
Pete Sell (+180)

Sean Sherk (-275)
Tyson Griffin (+215)

Anderson Silva (-650)
Patrick Cote (+450)

(click "read full story" for TBC's analysis...)

Fights I Love

For UFC 90, the must-bets for me are the Anderson Silva - Patrick Cote fight, the Gray Maynard - Rich Clementi fight, the Hermes Franca - Marcus Aurelio fight, the Dan Miller - Matt Horwich fight and the Thales Leites - Drew McFedries fight.

I love all things Anderson SIlva. I have to lay the money out on this fight. I think the SIlva - Cote fight will go somewhere along the lines of the Silva - Leben fight. Both Leben and Cote have that home run, knock out power, and really solid chins. The issue with that is that Silva doesn't try to hit your chin. He tries to strike direclty through your chin to the back of your head, and he succeeds more often than not. I think Cote will last until late in the first round, but will finally succumb to the pressure that is Anderson SIlva. Silva via TKO, round 1. I'll lay all $650 on SIlva, to win $100.

I've never been much of a Rich Clementi fan, excluding wanting to see him hold on to his choke against Melvin Guillard a little bit longer. He is 5-3 in the UFC with wins over Terry Etim, Sam Stout, Guillard, Anthony Johnson and Ross Pointon, and losses to Roan Carneiro, Din Thomas and Yves Edwards. Maynard is a star on the rise in the UFC. He won't have the same dominant height/strength advantage he enjoyed in his win over Frankie Edgar, but I think he will still be able to take Clementi down, and ground and pound his way to a victory. I will lay the $260 on Maynard, to win $100.

As for the Franca - Aurelio fight, this will be a technical brawl. I like this as my sleeper "fight of the night". These two gentlemen do not like each other. Franca was, at one time, a member of American Top Team. He eventually opened up his own gym as a satellite gym of ATT. The head of ATT, Ricardo Liboro, is the one that gives out black belts to all students associated with ATT. Well, Franca disagreed with this, and gave Kurt Pellegrino his black belt without checking with Liboro. This started a feud between the two, culminating with Franca and some of his students showing up at ATT and taking pictures outside the building with an upside-down ATT flag, flipping off the camera. While Franca says it is all water under the bridge, Aurelio doesn't think so. Aurelio is taking this fight for his team and himself, and I thnk his desire to win this fight prevails. Aurelio via unanimous decision. I'll lay $100 on him, to win $160.

I am a man who learns from his mistakes and I have underestimated the Miller brothers twice (Dan's fight with Rob Kimmons as well as Jim's fight with David Baron). I will not make the same mistake three times. 21 out of Horwich's 32 decisions have ended in submissions (he's 18-3 in those fights). And he has some quality wins on his ledger, including Josh Burkman, Jason MacDonald, Vernon White, Mike Pyle, Benji Radach and TUF'fer Krzysztof Soszynski. But the Miller boys are double tough. I think Dan Miller ends this fight with a choke, late in round one. Laying $162.50, to win $50.

Finally, the Leites - McFedries fight. I think this one will go the way most do. The majority of Leites' wins come via submission. McFedries does not defend submissions well. We've seen that Leites can take a shot (I'm talking to you, Nate Marquardt...). As long as Leites gets through the initial barrage of McFedries strikes, I think this will be a short night. Leites via rear naked choke, round one. Laying the big bucks here, $550 to win $100.

Too Close To Call

The fights I think will be fun to watch, but can't seem to find a winner with the lines are the Josh Koscheck - Thiago Alves fight, the Spencer Fisher - Shannon Gugerty fight, and the Sean Sherk - Tyson Griffin fight.

I think Koscheck - Alves is going to be a great fight. The winner will be in line for a shot against the Georges St. Pierre - BJ Penn winner some time early next year. Both of these guys can finish fights on the ground or standing up. Thiago is 8-2 in the UFC, with his only losses to Spencer Fisher and Jon Fitch. Koscheck is 9-2 in the UFC, with his losses to St. Pierre and Drew Fickett. Both have looked great in their last two fights, with Alves beating Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan, and Koscheck beating Chris Lytle and Dustin Hazelett. I feel that while Koscheck is good on his feet, he will want to take this fight to the ground, and Alves will want to bang. I think Kos will do just that, and get Thiago to the mat and ground out a split decision.

Spencer Fisher is another of my favorite fighers. He seems to have been around for such a long time, and he only has four losses on his record. I like Fisher to win a unanimous decision over Gugerty, who has talent, but is taking a real step up fighting Fisher.

How do you pick a winner in a fight between mirror images? That is the question here for the Sherk - Griffin fight. These two guys are both 5'6'', both love to wrestle and control on the ground, and both win the majority of their fights. I have no idea how this one will play out. A lot of places I have looked seem to think this will be a boring, unanimous decision for one or the other. I disagree. I do think the fight will go to decision, but I do not think it will be boring in any way. Sherk is looking for a win in the worst way, after being dominated by BJ Penn the way he was. And Griffin's star is still climbing. He rebounded well from his only defeat, at the hands of Frankie Edgar, with nice wins over Clay Guida, Thiago Taveras, and Marcus Aurelio. Knowing both of these guys will be in tip-top shape for this fight, I'm going to go with Sherk via unanimous decision, but in no way am I confident enough to lay any money on this fight.

No Chance

Man, I have such limited interest in the Josh Burkman - Pete Sell fight. I love the UFC, love MMA and love watching fights. This is the rare instance that I can't find a silver lining in a fight. Burkman is 5-4 in the UFC, Sell is 1-4. I'm not sure why either of these guys continues to get chances with the big show. While Sell's fight against Scott Smith was one of the greatest endings to a fight I have ever witnessed, he still came out on the losing end. I did love seeing him beat Phil Baroni, though. I just don't see anything exciting about Burkman. I hope they both prove me wrong, and put on a fight of the night. I just don't see it happening.

Last But Not Least

The Fabricio Werdum - Junior Dos Santos fight. This is set up to be an easy win for Werdum. He kind of got stuck on the outside looking in through the whole heavyweight eliminator thing we've got going on now. This should be a tune up for Werdum. Well, I hate tune ups. Werdum, most likely, will come in and dominate. But the odds on him to win are $1100! To win $100 on Werdum, you have to risk losing $1100! The UFC must have seen something in Dos Santos to give him this fight. Again, the thing that they saw may have been that he will be easy pickings for Werdum. But I am willing to wager that he has something. I will lay $50 on Junior Dos Santos, to win $300, but fully expecting to lose it. The odds are just too good not to be a part of it.

Good luck, everyone, and hopefully, you have a better week this week then I did last week.