By Tom MacKay, FightTicker.com contributor

With three major cards this weekend, it's time for my MMA betting analysis. I will preface this week's installment with a bit of a disclaimer. While there are many betting sites out there, it seems to me that the majority of them are severely limiting the fights they are taking action on these days. The majority of the fights on these three cards do not have lines as of Wednesday. If they do pop up later in the week, I will add them to this analysis.

Fights without lines

The following fights did not have lines at the time of doing this analysis:

UFC Fight Night (UFN) 14: "Silva vs. Irvin" - Jake O'Brien vs. Cain Velasquez; Jesse Taylor vs. CB Dollaway; Nate Loughran vs. Johnny Rees; Brad Blackburn vs. James Giboo; Dale Hartt vs. Shannon Gugerty; and Tim Credeur vs. Cale Yarborough

Affliction: "Banned" - Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell; Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin; Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Edwin Dewees; Savant Young vs. Mark Hominick; Justin Levens vs. Patrick Speight; Mike Pyle vs. JJ Ambrose

DREAM.5 - Finals between the winners of Caol Uno/Shinya Aoki and Eddie Alvarez/Tatsuya Kawajiri; Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Katsuyori Shibata; Joachim Hansen vs. Kultar Gill; Kid Yamamoto vs. Joseph Benavidez; Hideo Tokoro vs. Takeshi Yamazaki; Motoki Miyazawa vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka

Fight with lines

That leaves us with the following lines:

UFN 14

Anderson Silva -575
James Irvin +325

Brandon Vera -500
Reese Andy +300

Frank Edgar -145
Hemes Franca +115

Anthony Johnson -315
Kevin Burns +235

Rory Markham -250
Brodie Farber +190

Affliction: "Banned"

Fedor Emelianenko -400
Tim Sylvia +275

Josh Barnett -450
Pedro Rizzo +300

Matt Lindland -500
Fabio Negao +350

Renato Sobral -260
Mike Whitehead +190

Aleksander Emelianenko -350
Paul Buentello +275

DREAM.5

Shinya Aoki -450
Caol Uno +300

Tatsuya Kawajiri -125
Eddie Alvarez -105

Analysis

UFN 14 wagers

For the UFN 14 card there are three fights I have placed some hard-earned money on. In the Anthony Johnson-Kevin Burns fight, we have a striker versus a grappler. Johnson is explosive on his feet, but hasn't looked good against the only grappler he fought (Rich Clementi.) Burns' upset win over Roan Carneiro at UFC 85 was amazing. He looked phenomenal on the ground, and dominated the black belt Carneiro. I'm putting $100 on Burns to win $235.

I really like Rory Markham in his fight against Brodie Farber. Admittedly, I don't know much about Farber, but he is 13-3, with the majority of his fights against lesser-known competition (with his one big fight a loss in 55 seconds to Sean Sherk.) I think Markham is one of the few marketable fighters that the IFL had, and I think the UFC will use him wisely. I will lay the $250 on Markham to win $100.

Finally, I broke a cardinal rule of gambling in my final UFN 14 wager: I bet with my heart instead of with my head. I took Frank Edgar over Hermes Franca. Franca is coming off his suspension, and has been away from the Octagon for just over a year. I am a Jersey guy and I love Edgar. He is a good, young fighter who, after having met him at a restaurant in New Brunswick, is as good a person as he is a fighter. I think he will be able to out-wrestle Franca much the same Sherk did and keep him on the mat. He must stay away from Franca's dangerous hands and active submission attempts. I think Frankie will pull it off. I will lay the $145 to win $100 on Edgar.

I will not be betting on the big two fights of this card. I think Brandon Vera gets back in the win column against Reese Andy. Even though the rumors were that Vera would fight Wanderlei Silva, Lyoto Machida, or Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, he ended up with Andy. The UFC needs Vera to win to market him. A loss to Andy would be catastrophic. While I do believe Vera will win, I am not willing to risk the $500 necessary to make this fight pay out.

And the Anderson Silva-James Irvin fight is very strange to me. I feel Silva will win, and it may be in spectacular fashion. I think Silva will look good in his UFC 205 pound debut. My hesitation with picking Silva is, what if Irvin takes full advantage of the opportunity in front of him? Can Silva stand up to a legit 205 pounders' punches? Irvin has a puncher's (and if you ask Terry Martin, a knee-er's) chance in this fight. I can't see risking $575 to win $100 in this one.

Affliction wagers

We move on to the Affliction card. I've taken two fights here. In the Josh Barnett-Pedro Rizzo fight, I believe Barnett is out to make a statement. Rizzo is responsible for the only KO loss of Barnett's career at UFC 30. Barnett wants (needs?) to avenge this loss. He also crows early and often about fighting Fedor. A win here sets that fight up. I just have trouble seeing a 34-year-old Rizzo beating Barnett again. I was thinking about betting huge on this fight, but have choked that back and will just lay the $450 to win $100 on Barnett.

I also think "Babalu" (Renato Sobral) is head-and-shoulders above Mike Whitehead in talent. That doesn't always lead to a win, but in this case, I think "Babalu" on the ground will be way too much for Whitehead, who is stepping up in class for this fight. I will lay the $260 on Babalu to win $100.

I am at a crossroads on two other fights on this card. I think Aleksander Emelianenko is going to KO Paul Buentello. I really do. On the other hand, Buentello is not Eric Pele, Dan Bobbish or the great James Thompson. The only big-time fighter Aleks has beaten is Sergei Kharitonov. Now, the question becomes, is Buentello a big-time fighter, or another in a line of beatable opponents for Fedor's little brother? I think I will stay away from this one, but the temptation is there.

In the other "crossroad" fight, Matt Lindland has not fought in 15 months, and that last fight was against Fedor himself. Lindland is now 38-years-old, and I don't know how much he has left in the tank. His opponent, Fabio Negao, has beaten Carneiro, and lost to submission machines Demian Maia and Rousimar Palhares. I think Negao has a chance here, but I'm not sure. I could lay $50 here to win $175 on Negao, but I'm not ready to do that. My wife and I are going out on a friend's boat on Saturday before the fights. I will have to hide my cell phone to be sure I don't call anything in while I'm drinking.

I will not be laying money on the Fedor-Tim Sylvia fight. Sylvia is a bit of a jab-jab-jab fighter, but he is 6'8". Fedor is only 6', and he is giving up about 30 pounds to Big Tim. While Fedor has beaten taller fighters (Hong Man Choi), and heavier fighters (Mark Hunt), Sylvia is a step up in competition. I think Fedor will win this fight convincingly, but to lay $400 on it seems a bit of a reach.

DREAM.5 wagers

Finally, the DREAM.5 card. I have loved everything this promotion has put out so far, and this card is no exception. It's a shame that there are only two fights with lines. I think, depending on how I do Saturday, I will take one of them. I love watching Shinya Aoki. He is amazing on the ground. Caol Uno is a great grappler, too, but I think Aoki is in his prime right now. I think he will go on to win this whole Grand Prix. Depending on how I do Saturday, I will lay either $225 to win $50, or the whole $450 to win $100 on Aoki.

I will not make the same mistake I did in the first round of this tournament, and underestimate Eddie Alvarez. I thought my man Joachim Hansen would dominate Alvarez, but it was a good scrap that went Alvarez's way. Tatsuya Kawajiri is tough as nails in the clinch, and he will give Alvarez a hard time. It's going to be a war, but the lines are way too close to have a good payoff for either fighter. I'll leave this one alone.

It's great that MMA fans have been given three quality MMA cards this weekend. Hopefully Affliction's debut event is a success and we will continue to enjoy great cards from these promotions.