UFC 86 betting analysis
By Tom MacKay, FightTicker.com contributor
OK, ladies and gentlemen, it's time for our pre-UFC betting analysis. I am on a bit of a personal losing streak, so I will be looking to right the ship with UFC 86. Here are the odds, minus the Melvin Guillard-Dennis Siver fight and the Corey Hill-Justin Buchholz fight (my site doesn't have odds yet for these two fights):
Jorge Gurgel (+105)
Cole Miller (-135)
Gabriel Gonzaga (-600)
Justin McCully (+450)
Marcus Aurelio (+250)
Tyson Griffin (-350)
Josh Koscheck (-330)
Chris Lytle (+220)
Joe Stevenson (-220)
Gleison Tibau (+175)
Patrick Cote (+100)
Ricardo Almeida (-135)
Quinton Jackson (-260)
Forrest Griffin (+200)
Fights I feel good about
The fights I am feeling the strongest about are the Patrick Cote-Ricardo Almedia fight and the Joe Stevenson-Gleison Tibau fight. I truly feel like Almeida will be able to take Cote down and have his way with him. He is a submission master, and although Cote has a major advantage on the feet, I feel that one of the many attempts the "Big Dog" will throw at Cote will prove fruitful. I have placed my wager on Ricardo Almeida, $270 to win $200.
The second fighter I really like to put on a big performance is Joe Stevenson. He's won 4 of 5 fights in the UFC at lightweight, and I am not sure Tibau has what it takes to stop him. Tibau is a big lightweight, but his three wins are over Jason Dent, Jeff Cox and Terry Etim. Stevenson should be able to do enough to win a unanimous decision. I'm taking Joe Daddy, laying the $220 to win $100.
Fights that present good values
Next up, I have decided to go with a few underdogs who I believe have a really good chance of pulling off the upset. These are my value bets. I am taking Forrest Griffin for $100 to win $200, Chris Lytle for $50 to win $110, and Justin McCully for $50 to win $225.
The Griffin-Rampage fight is going to be a war. I don't think Rampage is going to dominate Forrest. I think Griffin is going to give Rampage fits. My issue is that I feel the same way about Forrest that I did about Ricky Hatton when he fought Floyd Mayweather. In the weeks leading up to the fight, I thought there was no way the 'dog could pull off the upset. By fight time, my desire to see the upset had become so great that I convinced myself that the 'dog would win. I have no problem risking $100 on Griffin's desire to be world champion. Easy bet for me.
The other two fights (Koscheck-Lytle and Gonzaga-McCully) are pure numbers bets. I think Lytle has a puncher's chance against Koscheck (I think he fits the same mold as Drew Fickett did against "Kos".) To put $50 on that fight in order to double my money is a no-brainer. I don't think McCully has much of a chance against Gonzaga. But again, a $50 bet pays off at $225. Could McCully lay-and-pray his way to a win? Maybe. After all, Gonzaga has lost two in a row. I also think I decided to never bet on "Napao" again after he lost to Werdum the second time, so I'm rolling the dice on McCully, with little to no confidence in him.
Fights I'm not touching
I couldn't figure out how to bet the Marcus Aurelio-Tyson Griffin fight at all. I think Griffin will win, but "Maximus" has had some great fights in his storied career (for example, against Takanori Gomi.) I didn't like laying the $350 on Tyson, either. And I'm not sure I'm all that interested in the Cole Miller-Jorge Gurgel fight. Jorge bores me to tears, and Miller got his hat handed to him by Jeremy Stephens in his last fight. Couldn't see risking any cash on this fight.
I'd appreciate any feedback or opinions anyone has on these fights. It should be a great weekend of fights.
Comments
For those of you who may or
For those of you who may or may not know this, Tom is FightTicker.com member TheBudCan...He was talking so much realness, I had to give him his own column. Enjoy!
Interesting read BudCan.
Interesting read BudCan. However, I would be murdered in my sleep if I put down $700 in bets...by my wife.
Head of the MMAfia's Canadian Family - Canada Eh!
Yeah, I've just got the $20
Yeah, I've just got the $20 I won from this site on Forrest as well, to win $40. If you look at the picks I made for UCC you can see we're pretty much on the same page there. Only place I think we differ is on those are on your picks of Guillard and Hill (and it looks like you did pick Rampage to win in that one). I guess we'll see how it all plays out tomorrow night. Best of luck to ya!
~SG
Hey Cincy. Yeah, I've had
Hey Cincy. Yeah, I've had this vice for a long time, but I've slowed down on betting other sports. My wife understands the way it works. I'm a die-hard Celtic fan, and I hit on the Celtics in the first three games of the Finals against the Lakers. That netted her a new laptop. The Dream 4 card got my son a new TV for his bedroom at my house. I used to bet uncontrollably, on ANYTHING they put a line on. But I got myself out of a hole as a youngster, and now, as I've gotten older, have become slightly more wise with what I am doing. I like to bet, and I really like to win. MMA betting is just the latest arm of that. I love this sport of ours because anything can happen. That is also the reason the rush is so great when betting the fights. I do understand that laying almost $700 on a night at the fights is a lot, but my wife is pretty cool about it, surprisingly.
Yeah, SG, I took Rampage in the UCC, but I wasn't happy about it as soon as I sent it in to phoenix. I'm rooting for Forrest, and I have my hard-earned money on him. That is where my loyalty lies for that fight. Thanks for the well-wishes!
TBC
I took Forrest Straight up
I took Forrest Straight up at +220.
I took Akmeida straight up at -130.
Then I took a parlay of:
Stevenson
Almeida
Koshcheck
For that one I had to lay $100 to win $243.
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Glad to see some ppl have
Glad to see some ppl have faith in Forrest out there!
I think it's funny that the entire winnings of the last contest (Sanity's $20 and my $30) went on Forrest, when we both could've done anything w/ that money on their site. Great minds think alike! *High fives Sanity*
Yeah Z, hopefully great
Yeah Z, hopefully great minds get paid alike and we'll be turning that combined $50 into $100...
Well, ended up down $70. I
Well, ended up down $70. I thought Almedia had that fight locked up after the first round, and I didn't see too much out of Cote to think he deserves a title shot. Oh, well. There is always the 19th. I see Ricardo's fight screwed you too, King. Sucks.
That Almeida fight really
That Almeida fight really threw me for a loop. Almeida looked like he ran out of steam fairly early in the fight. Disappointing all-around performance for him. I just don't see Cote having a shot against Silva, whereas Almeida has a style that can befuddle the champ at times...