Betting Odds on UFC 83
I was looking at my bookmaker's site, and saw that the odds are out for this weekend's UFC 83 card. I have been waiting for weeks to see what the odds are, and they just weren't listing any of the fights. I'm still not sure why it took so long, but we finally have odds on five of the fights. I'm not sure if the others will be listed at a later date, but it doesn't seem they will.
Georges St. Pierre (-500)
Matt Serra (+300)
Rich Franklin (-350)
Travis Lutter (+250)
Nathan Quarry (-265)
Kalib Starnes (+205)
Mac Danzig (-550)
Mark Bocek (+350)
Michael Bisping (-330)
Charles McCarthy (+260)
Once again, these are the basics of betting MMA...the favorite is the fighter listed with a minus in front of his number, and the underdog has a plus. The numbers shown are based on a $100 bet. If you choose to bet on a favorite, the number shown is what you would have to bet to win $100. If you would like to bet on an underdog, the number shown is what you would win if you bet $100.
For the upcoming UFC 83, I am having problems figuring out what to do. I think St. Pierre will come out angry and ready to fight against Serra, and I'm not sure Serra will be able to do anything against Georges (I thought the same thing last time, too). I'm assuming Franklin will be back in his "beat everyone not named Anderson Silva" form, so Travis Lutter could be in big trouble. The favorites in those two fights are pretty hefty favorites, too, so that makes the risk very great. Anything can happen. Serra is supremely confident for a guy who was a pretty decent fighter up until knocking St. Pierre silly in his last fight. He's tough, and I'm sure he'll be ready to go on Saturday, regardless of what I think will happen. Travis Lutter hasn't been back in the Octagon since his fight with Anderson Silva, where he missed weight, cut down as close as he could, still missed and fought anyway, looking gaunt and fraile. I'm assuming he'll be at the 185 limit well before fight time this go-round. He's tough on the ground, something Franklin has to be wary of. Risking $500 on St Pierre or $350 on Franklin seems like a lot for such a small payout of $100. Therefore, I won't be betting either of those two fights.
That leaves me just three fights to choose from. I usually like to bet the three fights I like the best on every card, but this could be an exception. The Mac Danzig - Mark Bocek fight is a tough one for me to call. I'm 85% sure that Danzig will be in great shape and ready to go. Bocek is really strong on the ground, but I think Mac will be able to take him. At (-550), though, Mac is un-bettable. Bocek, though, at (+350), may be worth throwing a few bucks on. I think I'll toss down $50 on Bocek, just in case he pulls off an upset. A win would pay me $175. Not a bad return.
The Nate Quarry - Kalib Starnes fight is another tough one for me to figure out. Starnes seems to have had a one fight on, one fight off type career since signing with the UFC. Dismantles Mike Stine on the Ultimate Fighter, quits against Kendall Grove in the semis, dominates Danny Abbadi at the Finale, loses to Yushin Okami, beats Chris Leben, loses on a cut to Alan Belcher...he's kind of due for a poor performance. But what do you do with Quarry? He had back surgery after suffering one of the greatest highlight reel KO's in the UFC's long history, then comes back with a huge KO of Pete "Mental Midget" Sell. I don't trust his back. The odds are pretty low on both fighters, but I think I'll throw down $50 more on Starnes, for a payout of $102.50. If either of these dogs pull of the upset, the payoffs will be solid.
Finally, the Michael Bisping - Charles McCarthy fight. I have to preface this with a personal thought... I do not like Charles McCarthy. I don't know why, but I don't. The guy rubs me the wrong way. I'm sure he's a nice guy in reality, but I can't bring myself to put any money on a guy I can't stand. Not a great gambling mantra, but nonetheless, I can't do it. I typically throw around a couple hundred dollars on a fight card, just to make it interesting. A few of my more-successful buddies waste way more than I do. But as it stands, I can only find room to bet $100 on the other four fights. So I'm thinking about breaking two of my cardinal sins of betting MMA (try not to bet on a favorite and don't bet on a favorite over -300) and throwing some cash on Bisping. I have to talk to my buddies first, to see where they are gong on this fight, but in order to win $50 on Bisping, I need to risk $165. In order to win $200, I have to risk $660. While I'm pretty sure Bisping will win the fight (and win easily), all of the smack talk between the fighters makes me slightly nervous. McCarthy could come out enraged and knock Mike's head off. Who knows? I can be swayed to throw some expendable cash down, but I won't know what I'm doing on that fight until about noon on Saturday.
Anyone have any strong feelings on which way these five fights will go? If you've got a gut feeling and are really sure about one or all five of these, let me know the reasoning and thought process behind it. I'm always interested in seeing what the smart fan thinks before I waste my hard-earned money.
Thanks for the help, everyone. Talk to you soon.
TBC
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Comments
ask SB. he wins the
ask SB. he wins the challenges all the time. wish i had extra cash laying around so i can make a few bets...
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family
So, you only bet the ppv
So, you only bet the ppv portion of the card, not the dark portion. Any particular reason for that? Is it because less is know about the dark card fighters or do you just have a thing for being able to watch the fights you bet on?
Where would you put your
Where would you put your money if you were going to bet, phoenix? Do you see anything worth tossing some cash on?
i would throw money on rich
i would throw money on rich and mac danzig. no way they are losing. if i threw down 50 bucks on each and lost that money i wouldn't have gas money for a while...
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family
Pramit - This is the first
Pramit -
This is the first time I've seen this, but I haven't found betting lines on the undercard fights anywhere. I actually like betting on the undercard fights moreso. You usually can get better value with the lesser-known fighters. I loved Josh Neer and Anthony Johnson on the last Fight Night card. Those were two that I had to lay money on, even if it meant I couldn't watch them.
TBC
Therein lies the problem
Therein lies the problem with betting favorites, phoenix. If you bet $50 on Franklin, and he won, it would pay out just over $14. Putting $50 on Danzig winning would net you about $9. But if they lose, you're out your $50.
Gotcha. That's what I was
Gotcha. That's what I was thinking. With your knowledge of the sport, I figured the dark card bouts would be a good place to make a nice profit, given that the average bettor probably knows less about those fighters and those odds are probably less reliable than main card odds.
Thanks for clearing that up.
gamblings hard. gambling is
gamblings hard. gambling is soo cool in the movies, but for me i don't see myself ever doing it.
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family
I'm with you Phoenix. I love
I'm with you Phoenix. I love getting into the mathematics and theory of gambling and picking the brains of seasoned bettors like TBC but I don't have the cajones to put money down with a professional bookie. I like the friendly wager from time to time and even that's quite a nice rush...
Yeah, man. I know what you
Yeah, man. I know what you mean. I'm pretty good about following all sports that I bet on(baseball, basketball, hockey, football, boxing and MMA), but I go into it knowing that if I go too crazy, there is no way to beat the house. So I try and keep it to a minimum. Now, depending on the season, that minimum level fluctuates. But it's a really entertaining way to watch games/fights. It surely makes the Clippers-Grizzlies game on a random Wednesday night MUCH more interesting.
i'm sure it would if you
i'm sure it would if you have money on the line.
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family
It looks like the favorites
It looks like the favorites are REALLY favorites this go around. How good/bad would it be to do a parlay (sp?) on the three favorites...? If GSP, Franklin and Danzig (or sub in Bisping) all do exactly what everyone expects and you bet $100... what would that be?
a dollar... Underboss
a dollar...
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family
This was on
This was on MMAunderdogs
MAIN CARD
Matt Serra (+300) Vs. Georges St. Pierre (-500)
According to our monthly poll, 22% of our readers think that Matt Serra has GSP’s number and is going to win this highly anticipated rematch. At +300, if you really think he’s going to win, you have to bet on him. However, I think St. Pierre is going to take this fight.
Rich Franklin (-350) Vs. Travis Lutter (+250)
Both of these guys are coming off of losses to Anderson Silva. This is one of those situations where you have to ask yourself a couple of questions. Is Rich Franklin not what he used to be? Or is he just horribly incompatible with Silva? He has 25 fights and 2 of his 3 losses were to “The Spider.” Lutter was on a 3 fight winning streak before he met up with Silva, and that fight was way back in February of 2007. Anything can happen here, and at +250 there is definitely some value in an underdog bet. Just keep in mind that it has been over a year since Lutter’s last fight/loss to Silva and that’s a long time to be out of the octagon.
Nathan Quarry (-295) Vs. Kalib Starnes (+235)
On the main card, Kalib is probably one of the best bets for an underdog pick. Neither of these fighters are slouches and if Kalib can manage to bring Quarry to the ground, he should have a distinct advantage over Quarry. At +235 he’s a great value.
Michael Bisping (-330) Vs. Charles McCarthy (+260)
Yet another situation where the favorite can totally be taken out of his element by the underdog taking him down to the ground. Bisping has a couple submission wins on his record, but it is definitely not his “gameplan.” On the other hand, McCarthy will not want to stand with Bisping. UFC experience and a striking advantage goes to Bisping, but if this goes to the ground with McCarthy in a dominant position, Bisping will be in a world he doesn’t want to be in. Small bet on McCarthy for the sub.
On the undercard we really like the value on 2 underdogs in particular. Ed Herman at +180 and Rich Clementi at +155. Against Herman is Demian Maia, who is undefeated with only 1 fight in the UFC. He could very well be handed his first loss by Ed Herman. Rich Clementi is really just a great versatile fighter. I think he has more tricks in his bag then Sam Stout and has a great chance of taking this one.
EERS_1_Fan
Head of South East Family
and still want a Wii
Sixtus - Parlaying favorites
Sixtus -
Parlaying favorites doesn't pay off, especially huge favorites. If you were to put down $100 on a three fight parlay (my site doesn't allow parlays on fights yet, but there are a few that do), taking Danzig, Franklin and St. Pierre pays out a whopping $80. I hate playing parlays, unless I'm taking dogs.
My site finally came up with the odds on the other fights, too.
Rich Clementi (+130)
Sam Stout (-160)
Brad Morris (+190)
Cain Velasquez (-240)
Jonathan Goulet (+175)
Kuniyoshi Hironaka (-220)
Jason MacDonald (-165)
Joe Doerksen (+135)
Ed Herman (+160)
Demian Maia (-200)
I was kind of surprised to see Maia as a favorite, although I think he will win. I may lay the $200 to win $100 on him.I also think I'm going to roll with Big Mac and throw $120 on Cain Velasquez, just to keep the card interesting.
Parlays are legit in March
Parlays are legit in March Madness though. I parlayed the line in two games, along with the over under. 30 bucks to win like 350, not bad
Oh, definately, erict.
Oh, definately, erict. Parlays can work. But you have to have the underdogs worked in there somewhere. If you were sure that Matt Serra, Travis Lutter and Mark Bocek were going to win, and you put out $100 on a three fighter parlay, and they all won, you'd walk away with about $6200. The problem with that is no one thinks all three of them will come through. Even throwing a $100 on a three fighter parlay of Georges St. Pierre, Travis Lutter and Kalib Starnes, and all three of them come out and win their fights, would pay about $1180. Great payoff, but you have to play dogs if you want to win when you gamble.
so parlay is when you bet on
so parlay is when you bet on 3 fighters or teams?
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family
Phoenix - Basically, a
Phoenix -
Basically, a parlay is a combination bet, where you pick two or more bets, but all of your choices have to win. As soon as one loses, you have lost your bet. You can parlay different sports, too, like taking the Detroit Pistons tonight at -105 and the Chicago Cubs -139. If both won, you would win a little more than $230 on a $100 bet. The odds go up the more teams/fighters you incorporate into the bet, obviously because you need all of them to win, so the more you put in, the better the chance you'll lose at least one. Typically, the two team parlays pay out 2.6/1, three teamers pay 6/1, four teamers 12/1 and five teamers 25/1. It goes on from there.
Damn! School is in session.
Damn! School is in session. Professor TBC in the house. I'm loving this. Keep it up!
TheBudCan is our resident
TheBudCan is our resident gambler. thats a lot of stuff to learn.
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family
Yeah, I've got problems,
Yeah, I've got problems, fellas. It's enjoyable, as long as I'm able to keep myself in check. When I first started gambling, at around 16 years old at a bar/restaurant I worked at, I got myself in too deep, and needed my step-mother to bail me out, lending me $850. At 16, that was a king's ransom. I had to sign over my paycheck to her for almost two months, plus give her a percentage of my tips. Ever since, I realized I can't make a living gambling, but by playing smart and studying the trends and lines, I could really help my income. It's paid for most of my electronics and vacations over the past 10 years.
$850 is a lot. that's a
$850 is a lot. that's a pretty young age to start gambling.
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family
You're telling me. I had
You're telling me. I had gone on an incredible winning streak, betting college and pro football, and was up like $450. Ended up losing all of that, plus a substantial amount more. I just felt that I could get it all back in one fell swoop. Wrong mentality. And to compliment my step-mother, she never told my dad about it, even to this day, 14 years later. He would have taken a chunk out of my backside back then.
One of my brother's just
One of my brother's just called me at work to let me know he decided to bet every underdog tonight. He put $25 on Brad Morris, Ed Herman, Jason Day, Joe Doerksen, and Charles McCarthy, and $50 on Jonathan Goulet, Kalib Starnes, Mark Bocek (all Canadians, fighting at home with pretty long odds), Travis Lutter (really seems to think he's going to take Franklin down and win the fight), Matt Serra (can lightning strike twice?) and Rich Clementi (not sure why). Should be interesting. He's risking $425 with the possibility, if every underdog wins, to collect $1,057. Obviously, that's not going to happen, but he'll come out ahead of the game if the upsets hit.
he just lost $425 as only
he just lost $425 as only rich clementi won....so if i did the 5 parlay picking all the favorites on the main card, putting 50 bucks on each, how much would i have won? (because in the challenge i picked all the favs to win.)
Underboss MMAfia
Head of the West Coast Family